Autonomous Electric vehicles (A-EV’s) use AI, advance generation batteries for cleaner and quicker transport also to transport passengers more efficiently without the need for drivers or fossil-fuel-driven internal combustion engines (ICEs). Autonomous Electric vehicle Low carbon economy Index 2017 highlights the considerable gap between current decarbonisation efforts and the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius. This ‘transition gap’ emphasizes the need for immediate action, and indicates a number of risks and opportunities for business. These include market, technology and policy disruptions that could bridge the gap to 2 degrees but present substantial risks to a number of sectors.

How great an impact could A-EVs have?

Between 2011-16 A-EV’s alone could bridge one third of the gap between decarbonisation rate (2.7%) and the 6.3% annual reduction needed for 2 degrees, up to 2030. Also A-EV analysis isolated to show ‘best case’ decarbonisation impacts from each scenario. However in real terms a range of other factors are likely to influence emissions from vehicles. Also impact on oil demand and the wider economy in BP, BNEF and Wood Mackenzie’s scenarios is noticeable, but does not amount to a paradigm shift. In contrast total reshaping of mobility in demand service. This shift leads to oil prices dropping to $25/barrel by 2030. This leads to oil fields, pipelines and refineries all increasingly at risk of becoming uneconomic or “stranded assets”, with knock-on effects for investors.

What are the implications for business?

Range of scenarios demonstrate the current uncertainty of how this technology could impact the economy. A-EVs are just one of a number of emerging technologies under the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) that could disrupt current business models. A range of stakeholders are likely to be impacted by these disruptions, including vehicles manufacturers; oil producers; utilities companies; regulators and consumers.

Source:CMIA

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Picture credit to:Peter Broomfield